Alpesh PatelMarket Regime

Weekly Market Regime · Free

What's the investing climate this week?

A plain-English read of momentum across the markets in your portfolio and ISA, updated every Monday.

Data to … Next update Monday Method Alpesh MACD Method
Monthly = the climateWhere the big money is positioned. It sets the long-term direction and usually wins.
Weekly = the weatherShorter swings inside that climate. Useful for timing, but it can change quickly.

Markets this week

What each regime means

Bullish

Climate and weather both improving. Dips tend to be shallow. Stay patient.

Caution

Climate improving, weather turning. A pause inside an uptrend. Don't chase.

Transitional

Climate still weak but its decline is slowing, and the weather is turning first. An early-turn watch.

Bearish

Climate deteriorating. Rallies often fade. Keep new money small; protect what you have.

How the regime is decided

  1. Read the monthly slope. Is momentum rising, flat or falling right now? Where it sits on the chart doesn't matter. Direction does.
  2. Read how fast it is changing. A fall that is slowing is very different from one that is speeding up.
  3. Read the weekly the same way. Then check whether it agrees with the monthly.
  4. Monthly wins disagreements. Institutions trade the monthly; weekly moves against it often fade.
  5. Check for a roll-over. If monthly momentum is positive but its lead is shrinking while the weekly has already weakened, we treat it as Bearish (provisional) until the chart confirms otherwise.

MACD (12, 26, 9) is calculated from weekly and monthly closing prices. Lines are shown as a percentage of the latest price so markets of different sizes can be compared.

The current month's bar is still forming, so the monthly read can change before month-end. "Provisional" means that is especially likely this week.

Daily price moves are ignored. On their own, they are noise.

Check in every Monday

The regime updates every Monday morning. Add a free weekly reminder to your calendar and take five minutes to see whether the climate for your portfolio and ISA is improving or deteriorating.

Every Monday at 8am UK time. No sign-up needed, and you can delete it any time.

Want to know how your own portfolio fits this climate? Request a free portfolio review.