Mag6 Watch
Mag6 Watch: the six giants, by the numbers
Scoreboard
Price changes to 4 November 2026. “10 years a year” is the compound annual price growth since 4 November 2016. Largest fall is the biggest drop from a closing high to a later low in those ten years. Volatility is the annualised swing in daily prices over the last year; beta measures how much the price has moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 over the last year.
| Company or index | Latest | 1 month | Year to date | 1 year | 10 years a year | From 52-week high | Largest fall | Volatility | Beta | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta PlatformsMETA | $630.00 | -12.7% | -4.6% | +0.4% | +18.0% | -19.2% | -77%Sep 2021 to Nov 2022 | 41% | 1.42 | |
| MicrosoftMSFT | $555.80 | +4.9% | +14.9% | +8.1% | +25.2% | -0.6% | -38%Nov 2021 to Nov 2022 | 34% | 1.07 | |
| AppleAAPL | $349.51 | +3.8% | +28.6% | +29.4% | +29.1% | -1.4% | -39%Oct 2018 to Jan 2019 | 25% | 0.62 | |
| AmazonAMZN | $266.03 | +2.4% | +15.3% | +6.7% | +21.6% | -7.4% | -56%Jul 2021 to Dec 2022 | 34% | 1.47 | |
| Alphabet (Google)GOOGL | $288.93 | -17.6% | -7.7% | +4.1% | +22.1% | -29.3% | -44%Nov 2021 to Nov 2022 | 34% | 1.41 | |
| NvidiaNVDA | $200.13 | -15.7% | +7.3% | +0.7% | +61.2% | -17.8% | -66%Nov 2021 to Oct 2022 | 37% | 1.86 | |
| S&P 500 (SPY ETF)SPY | $766.81 ETF | -1.3% | +12.4% | +13.6% | +13.9% | -1.9% | -34%Feb 2020 to Mar 2020 | 13% | 1.00 | |
| Nasdaq 100 indexNDX | 28,437 | -8.7% | +12.6% | +11.8% | +19.8% | -9.3% | -36%Nov 2021 to Dec 2022 | 20% | 1.44 |
Over the decade, Nvidia grew fastest at +61.2% a year, against +13.9% for the S&P 500. The price of that was the ride: Meta fell -77% from peak to trough along the way.
Return histograms
Each chart counts every overlapping holding period of that length in the last ten years: every 1-day return, every 5-day return and so on, up to every 250-day (roughly one-year) return. The bars show how often each return happened. The curve is a normal “bell curve” with the same average and spread. The gold line marks the latest period. Labels show the worst, median and best.
Meta Platforms: return histograms
Every overlapping holding period in the ten years to 4 November 2026 (2,263 one-year windows). Over about a year, Meta gained in 71% of periods; the median was +24%, the worst -74% and the best +250%.
Microsoft: return histograms
Every overlapping holding period in the ten years to 4 November 2026 (2,263 one-year windows). Over about a year, Microsoft gained in 83% of periods; the median was +29%, the worst -36% and the best +77%.
Apple: return histograms
Every overlapping holding period in the ten years to 4 November 2026 (2,263 one-year windows). Over about a year, Apple gained in 87% of periods; the median was +25%, the worst -30% and the best +152%.
Amazon: return histograms
Every overlapping holding period in the ten years to 4 November 2026 (2,263 one-year windows). Over about a year, Amazon gained in 80% of periods; the median was +20%, the worst -51% and the best +111%.
Alphabet (Google): return histograms
Every overlapping holding period in the ten years to 4 November 2026 (2,263 one-year windows). Over about a year, Alphabet gained in 80% of periods; the median was +28%, the worst -44% and the best +163%.
Nvidia: return histograms
Every overlapping holding period in the ten years to 4 November 2026 (2,263 one-year windows). Over about a year, Nvidia gained in 80% of periods; the median was +67%, the worst -56% and the best +307%.
S&P 500 (SPY ETF): return histograms
Every overlapping holding period in the ten years to 4 November 2026 (2,263 one-year windows). Over about a year, S&P 500 gained in 85% of periods; the median was +15%, the worst -21% and the best +75%.
Nasdaq 100 index: return histograms
Every overlapping holding period in the ten years to 4 November 2026 (2,263 one-year windows). Over about a year, Nasdaq 100 gained in 86% of periods; the median was +24%, the worst -35% and the best +84%.
Price and drawdown
Ten years of prices, adjusted for share splits. The pink shading hangs from the top and shows how far the price was below its previous peak (right-hand scale). The price line is green when the price is at or above its 50-day average and red when it is below.
Meta Platforms: price and drawdown
Meta is -19.2% from its 52-week high. Its largest fall in ten years was -77%, from Sep 2021 to Nov 2022. Over ten years it rose +422%, or +18.0% a year.
Microsoft: price and drawdown
Microsoft is -0.6% from its 52-week high. Its largest fall in ten years was -38%, from Nov 2021 to Nov 2022. Over ten years it rose +847%, or +25.2% a year.
Apple: price and drawdown
Apple is -1.4% from its 52-week high. Its largest fall in ten years was -39%, from Oct 2018 to Jan 2019. Over ten years it rose +1184%, or +29.1% a year.
Amazon: price and drawdown
Amazon is -7.4% from its 52-week high. Its largest fall in ten years was -56%, from Jul 2021 to Dec 2022. Over ten years it rose +605%, or +21.6% a year.
Alphabet (Google): price and drawdown
Alphabet is -29.3% from its 52-week high. Its largest fall in ten years was -44%, from Nov 2021 to Nov 2022. Over ten years it rose +640%, or +22.1% a year.
Nvidia: price and drawdown
Nvidia is -17.8% from its 52-week high. Its largest fall in ten years was -66%, from Nov 2021 to Oct 2022. Over ten years it rose +11742%, or +61.2% a year.
S&P 500 (SPY ETF): price and drawdown
S&P 500 is -1.9% from its 52-week high. Its largest fall in ten years was -34%, from Feb 2020 to Mar 2020. Over ten years it rose +268%, or +13.9% a year.
Nasdaq 100 index: price and drawdown
Nasdaq 100 is -9.3% from its 52-week high. Its largest fall in ten years was -36%, from Nov 2021 to Dec 2022. Over ten years it rose +510%, or +19.8% a year.
Odds by holding period
The same ten years of history, side by side. The longer you held, the more often these shares ended higher, but the range of outcomes also widened.
Share of all holding periods that ended higher.
| Holding period | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 50 days | 100 days | 250 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | 52% | 56% | 61% | 64% | 67% | 71% |
| Microsoft | 54% | 59% | 64% | 72% | 75% | 83% |
| Apple | 53% | 59% | 65% | 68% | 78% | 87% |
| Amazon | 53% | 56% | 63% | 68% | 69% | 80% |
| Alphabet | 54% | 57% | 63% | 68% | 71% | 80% |
| Nvidia | 53% | 58% | 65% | 72% | 79% | 80% |
| S&P 500 | 55% | 61% | 69% | 77% | 79% | 85% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 57% | 60% | 68% | 74% | 81% | 86% |
Median return: half of all periods did better, half did worse.
| Holding period | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 50 days | 100 days | 250 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | +0.1% | +0.6% | +2.4% | +4.9% | +8.7% | +24% |
| Microsoft | +0.1% | +0.6% | +2.1% | +5.3% | +11% | +29% |
| Apple | +0.1% | +0.8% | +2.7% | +6.1% | +11% | +25% |
| Amazon | +0.1% | +0.5% | +2.5% | +4.8% | +8.1% | +20% |
| Alphabet | +0.1% | +0.6% | +2.3% | +5.8% | +10% | +28% |
| Nvidia | +0.3% | +1.2% | +4% | +10% | +21% | +67% |
| S&P 500 | +0.1% | +0.4% | +1.7% | +3.4% | +6.5% | +15% |
| Nasdaq 100 | +0.1% | +0.6% | +2.2% | +4.8% | +9.2% | +24% |
5th percentile: only 1 period in 20 was worse than this.
| Holding period | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 50 days | 100 days | 250 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | -3.6% | -7.8% | -15% | -23% | -33% | -54% |
| Microsoft | -2.7% | -5.1% | -8.6% | -12% | -15% | -18% |
| Apple | -2.8% | -5.7% | -11% | -15% | -16% | -7.7% |
| Amazon | -3.1% | -6.9% | -12% | -20% | -20% | -36% |
| Alphabet | -2.8% | -6.3% | -11% | -15% | -16% | -27% |
| Nvidia | -4.6% | -9.5% | -17% | -25% | -36% | -40% |
| S&P 500 | -1.7% | -3.5% | -6.5% | -9.1% | -10% | -12% |
| Nasdaq 100 | -2.3% | -4.5% | -8.2% | -12% | -13% | -19% |
95th percentile: only 1 period in 20 was better than this.
| Holding period | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 50 days | 100 days | 250 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | +3.5% | +8.5% | +18% | +38% | +61% | +140% |
| Microsoft | +2.6% | +5.7% | +13% | +21% | +31% | +57% |
| Apple | +2.9% | +6.7% | +14% | +25% | +37% | +90% |
| Amazon | +3.3% | +7.5% | +15% | +27% | +40% | +83% |
| Alphabet | +2.9% | +7.1% | +15% | +25% | +42% | +87% |
| Nvidia | +5.1% | +12% | +29% | +52% | +94% | +220% |
| S&P 500 | +1.6% | +3.7% | +6.9% | +11% | +17% | +35% |
| Nasdaq 100 | +2.2% | +4.8% | +9.8% | +17% | +25% | +48% |
Now vs history
The latest return for each holding period, and where it ranks against every period of the same length in ten years. The 90th percentile means the latest return beat 90% of history; the 10th means only 10% of periods were worse. Extremes in either direction are worth noticing, not acting on by themselves.
| Latest period | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 50 days | 100 days | 250 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | +1.4%78th pct | +2.9%72th pct | -13%8th pct | +11%68th pct | +11%54th pct | -0.9%28th pct |
| Microsoft | +6.7%99th pct | +4.7%92th pct | +4.9%70th pct | +13%81th pct | +42%99th pct | +9.6%25th pct |
| Apple | +5.3%99th pct | +1.7%61th pct | +3.8%56th pct | +13%71th pct | +20%73th pct | +29%59th pct |
| Amazon | +6.1%99th pct | +4.5%85th pct | +2.4%49th pct | +1.9%39th pct | +12%56th pct | +6.3%28th pct |
| Alphabet | +3.2%96th pct | -11%1th pct | -18%1th pct | -17%4th pct | -20%3th pct | +1.6%22th pct |
| Nvidia | -3.2%11th pct | -7.1%9th pct | -16%6th pct | -6.1%18th pct | -2.5%18th pct | +2.5%20th pct |
| S&P 500 | +1.7%96th pct | -0.7%25th pct | -1.3%21th pct | +0.1%24th pct | +3.4%33th pct | +13%42th pct |
| Nasdaq 100 | +0.9%78th pct | -4.6%5th pct | -8.7%4th pct | -2.6%18th pct | -4%15th pct | +11%27th pct |
How to read this
The bell curve understates the tails
Short-term returns cluster tightly around zero, but the extremes happen more often than a normal curve predicts. Look for bars sitting outside the blue curve at the edges.
Longer periods lean to the right
Over a year, compounding stretches the right-hand side. A few spectacular years can drag the average well above the median, so the median is the fairer “typical” number.
These are the winners, picked in hindsight
These six are on this page because they became the biggest companies in the world. Ten years ago nobody could be sure of that. Their history says little about how the next decade’s winners, or these same companies, will do.
Concentration cuts both ways
Together these six make up a large share of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, so many index investors already own a lot of them. Owning them directly as well can double up the same risk.
How much of your portfolio already rides on six companies? A free portfolio review shows your real exposure across funds and shares.
Get a free portfolio reviewData: Perplexity Finance daily closing prices, adjusted for share splits, for the ten years to 4 November 2026. The S&P 500 uses the SPY index-tracking ETF; the Nasdaq 100 uses the index itself. Returns are price only and exclude dividends. Periods are trading days and overlap, so neighbouring periods share most of their days. Education only, not financial advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. See also Markets this week.